«Volatile and erratic» 2022 Wet Season Ahead

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The Trinidad and To­ba­go Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice (TTMS) is fore­cast­ing a «volatile and er­rat­ic» 2022 Wet Sea­son for Trinidad and To­ba­go.

Speak­ing at the TTMS’s four­teenth Na­tion­al Cli­mate Out­look Fo­rum, act­ing Chief Cli­ma­tol­o­gist Ken­neth Kerr said while the coun­try will have a dri­er start to the 2022 Wet Sea­son, rain­fall is ex­pect­ed to pick up over the com­ing months, par­tic­u­lar­ly by the sec­ond half of the Wet Sea­son. This wet­ter-than-usu­al sec­ond half is ex­pect­ed to cause the 2022 Wet Sea­son to have above-nor­mal rain­fall over­all.

Most ar­eas across Trinidad and To­ba­go are ex­pect­ed to re­ceive be­tween 101 per­cent and 110 per­cent of the av­er­age Wet Sea­son rain­fall. Kerr al­so ex­plained that iso­lat­ed ar­eas fa­vor­ing north­east­ern and west-cen­tral Trinidad and east­ern To­ba­go may re­ceive up to 125 per­cent of the av­er­age Wet Sea­son rain­fall ac­cu­mu­la­tions.

With wet con­di­tions fore­cast, the Met Of­fice looked at in­di­ca­tors that may lead to floods, in­clud­ing month­ly rain­fall ex­ceed­ing 250 mil­lime­ters or heavy rain­fall days where rain­fall ex­ceeds 25 mil­lime­ters with­in 24 hours. The TTMS fore­casts a 15 per­cent to 40 per­cent chance for Oc­to­ber’s rain­fall to ex­ceed 250 mil­lime­ters, while Au­gust’s chances are high­er, be­tween 20 and 50 per­cent.

The Met Of­fice is al­so fore­cast­ing be­tween 16 to 20 days where rain­fall could ex­ceed 25 mil­lime­ters with­in 24 hours, not­ing the av­er­age for any Wet Sea­son is 15. Ex­treme­ly heavy rain­fall is al­so pos­si­ble, with a 37 per­cent chance for above-nor­mal ex­treme­ly heavy rain­fall days where rain­fall to­tals ex­ceed 50 mil­lime­ters with­in 24 hours. The TTMS says the coun­try is like­ly to re­ceive four to 10 of these days, not­ing the av­er­age is three ex­treme­ly heavy rain­fall days for a typ­i­cal Wet Sea­son, with two days re­ceiv­ing up­wards of 75 mil­lime­ters.

An­oth­er Ac­tive Hur­ri­cane Sea­son

While in­ter­na­tion­al fore­cast­ers are call­ing for the sev­enth con­sec­u­tive above-av­er­age At­lantic Hur­ri­cane Sea­son, the TTMS looks close­ly at a re­gion east of our coun­try to see what im­pacts the Hur­ri­cane Sea­son may bring. Storms that form with­in the area bound­ed by 5N and 15N lat­i­tude, while east of Trinidad and west of Africa, typ­i­cal­ly have the high­est chances of im­pact­ing T&T di­rect­ly or in­di­rect­ly.

On av­er­age, four named storms form in this re­gion, with one be­com­ing a hur­ri­cane. For 2021, five named storms formed in this re­gion, with three strength­en­ing in­to hur­ri­canes. This year, the Met Of­fice is fore­cast­ing a 40 per­cent chance of an above-av­er­age sea­son and a 47 per­cent chance of a near-nor­mal sea­son. Look­ing at ab­solute num­bers, the Met Of­fice says four named storms are most like­ly to form east of T&T, with­in a like­ly range of two to five named storms. Of these storms, they add that two are most like­ly to strength­en in­to hur­ri­canes, with a like­ly range of two to three.

It on­ly takes one storm to di­rect­ly im­pact Trinidad and To­ba­go for it to be an ac­tive one for us. With the flood po­ten­tial be­ing much high­er than nor­mal for 2022 and the knowl­edge that an­oth­er ac­tive hur­ri­cane sea­son is fore­cast this year, the Met Of­fice is urg­ing cit­i­zens to ac­cel­er­ate prepa­ra­tions. They add that dis­as­ter pre­pared­ness, flood al­le­vi­at­ing agen­cies, and emer­gency re­spon­ders must use the slow start to the Wet Sea­son to es­ca­late prepa­ra­tions.

Re­porter: Kalain Ho­sein

 

LINK ORIGINAL: The Trinidad Guardian

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